Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.459972 2.618557 2.793047 3.001607 3.247409 3.532405 3.895090
2025-05-25 2.277474 2.474730 2.702460 2.990802 3.355906 3.818538 4.480100
2025-06-01 2.148172 2.366400 2.626721 2.970204 3.429540 4.055760 5.052647
2025-06-08 2.046158 2.276925 2.559053 2.943467 3.481005 4.262190 5.641614
2025-06-15 1.988140 2.234187 2.542368 2.976234 3.612409 4.606416 6.608248
2025-06-22 1.884322 2.125936 2.431571 2.867768 3.520590 4.574673 6.841098
2025-06-29 1.832229 2.079983 2.398288 2.862589 3.581193 4.808506 7.790397
2025-07-06 1.762490 2.007152 2.324010 2.791513 3.528225 4.826591 8.226878
2025-07-13 1.740984 1.995824 2.331478 2.839006 3.671183 5.248261 10.279103
2025-07-20 1.735257 2.004489 2.366140 2.929258 3.899467 5.927554 15.059502
2025-07-27 1.703524 1.976285 2.346784 2.933582 3.975192 6.295633 20.526970
2025-08-03 1.678279 1.955584 2.336624 2.951015 4.077382 6.777838 35.380219
2025-08-10 1.626857 1.898440 2.273061 2.880765 4.007346 6.780963 46.959523
2025-08-17 1.594749 1.866799 2.245177 2.867066 4.048534 7.139723 658.908069
2025-08-24 1.563113 1.834559 2.214727 2.846557 4.072735 7.465096 NaN
2025-08-31 1.532381 1.802467 2.182967 2.821406 4.083633 7.759254 NaN
2025-09-07 1.517697 1.792296 2.183295 2.850906 4.217605 8.630832 NaN
2025-09-14 1.471822 1.736519 2.112485 2.751805 4.049812 8.135847 NaN
2025-09-21 1.451499 1.716629 2.095633 2.747002 4.098346 8.650959 NaN
2025-09-28 1.417471 1.676301 2.046252 2.681921 4.000093 8.434389 NaN
2025-10-05 1.411226 1.675535 2.057383 2.725391 4.163609 9.669926 NaN
2025-10-12 1.413906 1.687577 2.088670 2.807812 4.441347 12.221180 NaN
2025-10-19 1.398964 1.673464 2.078240 2.811751 4.518489 13.643467 NaN